In recent months, Senegal’s political system, which often serves as an example of democracy for other countries in the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), has been experiencing yet another socio-political crisis since gaining its independence from France in 1960.
This crisis primarily stems from the confusion surrounding Macky Sall’s decision whether or not to stand for a third term in the 2024 presidential elections. Sall has been president of Senegal since April 2, 2012.
Eager for change at the head of state, a large proportion of the population, composed mainly of young people (76 percent of Senegalese citizens are under 35), oppose Sall, thus putting all their confidence in opposition candidate, Ousmane Sonko.
To better understand the political situation, what’s at stake in the upcoming elections, and young people’s involvement, Global Voices interviewed political analyst and founder and executive director of the Citizen Think Tank of West Africa (WATHI), Gilles Yabi, who also served as West Africa Project Director for the International Crisis Group.
Jean Sovon (JS): What is your take on the current political situation in Senegal?
Translation Original Quote
Gilles Yabi (GY): I believe the political situation in Senegal eased after President Macky Sall announced his intention to not run for the upcoming elections. This uncertainty was one of the driving forces behind the tension in the country. However, the political future of Ousmane Sonko, a declared candidate in the upcoming elections, is also uncertain. Although he hasn’t been detained, he has been under house arrest for several weeks. The question of his candidacy remains unresolved. The focus is now on the organization of these elections and the candidates who could be selected.
JS: Does Macky Sall’s withdrawal offer Sonko a fast track to the presidency?
Translation Original Quote
GY: No, because not only are there legal proceedings against Ousmane Sonko in a case involving accusations of rape and death threats, but also in a libel case. The legal proceedings are ongoing in both cases.
JS : Apart from Sonko, who are the other candidates in contention?
Translation Original Quote
GY: The candidates are in abundance. Twenty individuals have declared their candidacy, but the number selected by the Constitutional Court is expected to be much lower than the number declared.
Among the most promising candidates is Idrissa Seck, who came second in the last elections. Despite his collaboration with the current government, he may also be considered an opponent. There is also Khalifa Sall [unrelated to Macky Sall] who could be a consensual figure, representing the moderate opposition. What’s more, Ousmane Sonko’s party could nominate another candidate should he no longer be able to stand for election. However, while awaiting clarity on Sonko’s fate, it’s too early to know who will be able to establish an effective opposition.
JS: Is young people’s mobilization during elections similar to that during the country’s recent protests?
Translation Original Quote
GY: There is a relatively high level of involvement, which is also associated with the country’s political history. We must remember there was also a crisis when President Abdoulaye Wade decided to stand for a third term in 2012. He did participate in the elections, but was defeated. At that time, there were also citizen movements, like Y’en a Marre [Fed Up], which successfully mobilized a considerable number of young people to prevent Abdoulaye Wade’s third term.
The electoral mobilization of young people thereby played its part in Abdoulaye Wade’s defeat. Macky Sall’s withdrawal also shows there can be a free and open process in which young people can get involved. We talk about young people here, but there’s actually a lot of children and minors taking part in these protests. However, many of these young people aren’t even old enough to vote. Many of those who are old enough, are not registered to do so and don’t pick up their voting cards.
JS: How can young people help make Senegal an example of democracy in the sub-region?
Translation Original Quote
GY: It’s not always clear which age group we’re talking about. However, one thing that is clear is that young people account for most of the population in African countries. They thereby play a very important political role. Not only at election time, but also in terms of protests and participation.
Senegalese young people primarily play a watchdog role in society. They call for some changes in the country’s political and economic practices, as well as in its style of leadership. There are some real issues and young people are the primary victims. They, therefore, have the right to contribute to discussions and provide pre-campaign and campaign guidance on these issues.
However, let’s not forget that decisions made by political actors at the highest level, who can create the conditions required for genuine idea-based campaigns and elections, ultimately remain the determining factor.
JS: What are the key social and economic issues in this election?
Translation Original Quote
GY: Like all elections in countries with a presidential system, this is an important event. A change in leadership can influence political, economic and social policies. Today, Senegal is in a unique position with undeniably visible developments in physical infrastructure. There has been significant progress in many areas, but it’s clear that this won’t be enough to reduce youth unemployment.
Another key factor is that Senegal is becoming an oil and gas producing country, thus raising much passion and hope among many stakeholders and the population alike. As this production is expected to begin in 2024, this is one of the key issues in this election. The incoming president is therefore the one who will be there when the country’s economy is boosted by this hydrocarbon production.
JS: How are the campaigns taking place?
Translation Original Quote
GY: Although some campaigns are now taking place online, this doesn’t replace traditional campaigns. Even in countries with relatively high levels of connection, only a minority of the population actually has the means to get connected and participate in online discussions. Some are thereby not only taking place online to reach young people, who are the most connected, but to also facilitate the diaspora’s participation in this election. There will be a local election campaign with meetings and door-to-door canvassing by certain candidates. Candidates also receive citizen sponsorships from voters. Now, this includes sponsorships by elected representatives. This is a way of launching their campaign at this stage, which ultimately requires candidates to seek political support directly from citizens, mayors and elected representatives. There will be a local campaign and we are well aware that these campaigns largely depend on the financial resources available to the various candidates.
JS: Who are the foreign actors in this election: France, China, Russia, the United States? How do they operate?
Translation Original Quote
GY: Many foreign actors will be interested in Senegal’s upcoming elections. The country is an important geographical position to observe the rest of Africa. This is also an anchor point for the French-speaking part of the sub-region. All these actors will be observing this election. The oil and gas economic factor I highlighted is not only important for foreign, public and private actors, but also for governments.
JS: What is your conclusion?
Translation Original Quote
GY: Senegal must continue building political institutions that are both effective and democratic. These two factors are essential. We need a government led by figures who are considered legitimate by the people and who can further strengthen these institutions. This is Senegals’s biggest challenge, especially at a time where there are many expectations. These are often disproportionate to resources and haven’t necessarily changed the country’s economic trajectory for the better in many locations.
Source: Global Voices